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Premier League 'supercomputer' explained as Pep Guardiola latest to criticize Liverpool forecast

Pep Guardiola joined the chorus of those questioning the Premier League 'supercomputer' predictions after Liverpool's chances dropped. Here's the truth behind them.

(Photo by Alberto Gardin/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images)
Pep Guardiola questioned the latest 'supercomputer' forecast that has seen Liverpool lose ground.

Liverpool and Arsenal both lost at the weekend, flipping the state of play in the Premier League on its head. Having previously required favors from both in order to win the title, Manchester City now has things safely back in its own hands with six games to play.

The so-called 'supercomputer' models all swung wildly in favor of Manchester City after those defeats, with the Etihad outfit now considered heavy favorite to claim an unprecedented fourth consecutive title. But Pep Guardiola chastised those writing off Liverpool and Arsenal after their poor results.

Guardiola became the latest to question the trend of consulting the wisdom of supercomputers. He pointed out that if Manchester City's disadvantage can disappear so quickly, so too can its advantage.

"What is two points' difference?" he asked, via the Metro. "When we were two points down on Arsenal and Liverpool, I was thinking we have to do our job, it is not over.

"Now we are two in front, it is not over. It is the same feeling I have in previous weeks when we draw against Arsenal and people say, 'no chance because of the computer.'

"The computer says this or that, I don’t know if the computer can play left back or right back , I don’t know how to discover that. But the computer says you have no chance and now you have a chance.

"Nothing changes for me. Six games left, we have a lot of difficult games home and away. We have [difficult games] and both of them [Arsenal and Liverpool] have too."

The computer has been firmly in the firing line this week. Alan Shearer quipped on Match of the Day 2 that it 'can't be that super', having favored Liverpool as recently as last weekend.

But what is this computer? More often than not, it's the Opta prediction model — it works off a proprietary and continually-updated team ranking system, coupled with betting odds, to assess the likeliest outcomes of each remaining game.

And to let you in on a little industry truth, there's no single definitive 'supercomputer'. It's clickable shorthand for just about any prediction model (for example this one, which gives Liverpool a far higher chance), based to varying degrees on useful indicators like form, fixtures and almost invariably what the bookmakers think.

It goes without saying that these models are prone to churn out drastically different forecasts after unexpected results change the picture. Just like most Liverpool fans would have expected to beat Crystal Palace, so too did the 'supercomputers'; the upset altered the equation, and now Manchester City is the heavy favorite, much to the apparent chagrin of Guardiola.

Naturally, the odds can be defied. These computers are running thousands of simulations of how these matches could go, sometimes more, but in reality the games are only played once — a freak result changes everything, which is what makes the sport so compelling. Obviously, if the supercomputer was unerringly accurate, there would be no point watching.

But just because the numbers are prone to change, it does not mean that the supercomputers are completely without value. After all, the bookies (a key component of the calculations) made Manchester City big favorite at the start of the season, and here it is in the driving seat with just six games left; the statistics are rarely too far wrong.

Klopp has made a habit of defying those numbers with Liverpool. Perhaps Guardiola is so against the supercomputers because they almost invariably hand him the burden of being favorite. But as he rightly points out, this title will be decided on the pitch and nowhere else, with plenty more time for twists even the best model would not see coming.

Liverpool.com says: It's incredible how many people seem to be genuinely upset by how often a supercomputer prediction is 'wrong'. It would be like getting irked every time a favorite for a game did not win — that might be a familiar feeling for those who like to place an accumulator or two of a weekend, but football would be very boring if the numbers could determine the outcome with any certainty.

Reading what the supercomputers are saying might not be everyone's cup of tea. But it's a useful indication of the Premier League state of play, and whether Guardiola wants to accept it or not, it's advantage Manchester City right now.

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