Newcastle United have a clearer idea of what will secure them European football next season - and it’s all on the FA Cup if you don’t believe in miracles.

Manchester City and Arsenal were knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid and Bayern Munich last night, severely denting the chances of seeing five English clubs play in the competition next season. England’s coefficient, which is based on how their clubs do in European competition, has taken a major hit over the last week or so as they now trail both Italy and Germany heading into the latter stages of all three major European club competitions.

Italy are currently top of the rankings with Germany having leapfrogged England into second place courtesy of Borussia Dortmund’s win over Atletico Madrid and Bayern’s triumph over Arsenal. A complicated system can be boiled down to one simple fact - English clubs need to pull off a string of miracles tonight in order for England to regain the advantage in the coefficient table.

West Ham will need to overcome their 2-0 deficit against Bayer Leverkusen, a team that haven’t been beaten in any competition this season, whilst Liverpool need to overturn the 3-0 defeat they suffered at Anfield against Atalanta last week. Both teams are facing down the barrel of a Europa League exit to German and Italian sides - results that would further strengthen Italy and Germany’s grasp on having a fifth team in the Champions League next season.

For Newcastle United, this means that it’s likely only the top four of the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League, 5th place will receive a Europa League place whilst 6th will qualify for the Conference League. The Magpies currently sit 6th in the table - meaning if the season were to end today, they would be playing Conference League football next season.

However, they will be hoping for a further lifeline this weekend when the FA Cup semi-finals take place. If Man City were to beat Chelsea and then win in the final on Saturday May 25, then the team that finishes in 7th place will be given a Conference League spot, whilst 5th and 6th will earn Europa League places.

However, any other winner of the FA Cup would leave Newcastle United in a very precarious position. A Chelsea or Manchester United triumph would mean they guarantee themselves a Europa League spot - even if they finish out of the qualifying spots in the league.

That would have repercussions for Newcastle United and mean that only six teams will qualify for European football through the league - and mean that 6th place, should the Red Devils or Blues win the FA Cup and finish 7th or below, would only be good enough for a Conference League spot.

If Coventry City were to win the FA Cup, then it is guaranteed that only the top-six Premier League finishers would qualify for European football next season. Coventry would then get a spot in the Europa League - even if they were still playing Championship football.

Ultimately, Man City and Arsenal’s defeats means qualification for the Champions League is almost definitely out of Newcastle’s reach this season. A 6th placed finish guarantees European football in some guise next season. A 7th place finish would see the Magpies relying on either Man City lifting the FA Cup again - or hoping that either Chelsea or Manchester United can lift the cup and finish 6th or higher.