The summer transfer deals that could well happen for Manchester United - along with the ones that probably won’t.

Manchester United have a huge summer ahead of them – there are new part-owners in charge of the transfer kitty, a decision to make on the manager and a big overhaul of the squad to sort out.

The club have been linked with a whole host of players at a variety of positions, and trying to figure out which rumours are real and which are just media bluster is tricky, but after tracking all the stories that have emerged from Old Trafford for the past few months, we’ve got some idea of which of them hold more water than others.

To start with, the front line is in need of attention and it’s likely that United will look to bring in two new attacking players – a central striker and, most likely, a winger – and as it stands, it’s looking more and more as if they’re the front-runners to sign Ivan Toney.

Arsenal and Chelsea had both been casting an eye over the Brentford striker but seem to have settled on other targets while United’s name is being mentioned more and more often – Caught Offside are among the outlets who have carried such stories. A deal will depend on United’s ability to negotiate a good price, however, with Thomas Frank not long ago claiming that Brentford valued Toney at £100m – he won’t cost that much, but a story which circulated claiming that the actual fee would be in the £30-40m range are almost definitely wide of the mark.

Toney may have emerged as the main target for the number nine role, but there’s a lot less certainty over the players they want playing in support of him. Joshua Zirkzee and Michael Olise have perhaps come up more than anyone else, but there are plenty of caveats.

For starters, while the interest in Crystal Palace winger Olise is definitely genuine, The Athletic (paywalled) have reported that he will only consider leaving Selhurst Park for a club that can offer him Champions League football. That won’t be United – but might be Arsenal or Liverpool, both of which have also been linked with a bid. We think Olise is very unlikely to end up at Old Trafford.

Zirkzee is more plausible by far, and the Bologna forward would almost certainly be tempted by a move to Old Trafford, but he isn’t a wide forward in the traditional sense and would likely compete with Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford and Mason Mount in roles which United are arguably oversubscribed in. They could sign him as a number nine, but he isn’t an out-and-out goalscorer. Dani Olmo, who has been mentioned in the Spanish media as a target, has the same issue, and Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Manchester City are also reported to be interested in a £50m deal for the RB Leipzig forward.

For now, we’re not sure what United are planning on this front. The Zirkzee link seems the most solid, but we suspect there are a few names in contention. When it comes to the holding midfielder they intend to buy to replace the likely outgoing Casemiro, however, we’re more confident that Wolverhampton Wanderers’ João Gomes is their number one target.

A bid of £40m will likely be required, and he fits the bill, offering much of the same defensive quality and dynamism of a slightly younger Casemiro without breaking the bank – with the need to spend elsewhere, it is unlikely that United take a leaf out of Arsenal’s book and drop £100m on a defensive midfielder.

The Daily Mirror are among numerous outlets who have picked up on the story and we believe the reports that United are interested – they will, however, face competition for the 23-year-old, meaning it’s far from a done deal. Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United are alleged to be keen, as well.

Defence is the last part of the pitch which will get a summer makeover, with a centre-back and a right-sided wing-back high on the shopping list. When it comes to a central defender, it would be easier to find big-ticket players they haven’t been linked with, but Jean-Clair Todibo seems the most likely signing.

His name has come up more than any other over the past six months or so, and it helps matters that Ineos, who now control sporting matters at Manchester United, also own OGC Nice, his current club. United would essentially be negotiating with themselves.

The Manchester Evening News report that he would cost about £40m, which is in the right price range and is certainly cheaper than, say, Jarrad Branthwaite would be. We don’t doubt that United have the towering Everton defender on their shortlist, but with reports of the price tag ranging from £60m upwards, we think the more experienced and well-rounded Todibo is a much more probably signing.

Finally, at right-back, United are looking hard at a bid for Bayer Leverkusen’s marauding wide man Jeremie Frimpong. The Dutchman has been hugely impressive under Xabi Alonso this season, scoring a string of crucial goals and showing plenty of attacking flair over the course of Leverkusen’s remarkable unbeaten season.

The MEN also report that Jules Koundé and Denzel Dumfries (who has been linked with United on a number of occasions) are options, but Frimpong seems to be the first-choice target. He is also rumoured to have a £34m release clause in his contract, which would fit United’s budget just fine. The only question is whether Frimpong wants to miss out on a Champions League run, whether that’s at Leverkusen or elsewhere.

No doubt United have other players on their shortlists and there is plenty of time for twists and turns between here and the end of the transfer window, but as it stands we think deals for Toney, Gomes, Todibo and Frimpong are both at the top of the to-do list and very plausible – but as is always the case in football, the chances they all get over the line are slim, and if they decide to part ways with Erik ten Hag, there may be a new manager with different priorities coming in to change course.