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Liverpool Champions League seeding confirmed as Man City nightmare emerges

Liverpool are one of a number sides who have already secured their place in next season's Champions League group-stages

Liverpool will hope to be in the Champions League in the 2024/25 season
Liverpool will hope to be in the Champions League in the 2024/25 season

After a one-year absence, Liverpool are back in the Champions League.

The Reds finished a disappointing fifth last season, recovering to qualify for the Europa League having previously looked unlikely to even finish in the European places. As a result, it was the first time Jurgen Klopp had failed to lead his side into Europe’s elite club competition since his first year at the club in 2015/16.

With expectations for the 2023/24 campaign reduced as a result, Liverpool headed into the new season hoping to at least reclaim a Champions League berth. And with the tournament’s revamp in 2024/25 opening up the possibility for five English teams to qualify, a battle for such a berth was perhaps anticipated.

Instead, the Reds found themselves in a Premier League title-race for the majority of the campaign, only for a recent loss of form to see them fall away during the last six weeks of the season.

They have at least done enough to qualify for next season’s Champions League though, with Tottenham Hotspur's defeat at Chelsea last week guaranteeing their place in the top four. With Aston Villa then losing away at Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday prior to Liverpool’s own visit of Spurs, a top-three finish was clinched before even kicking a ball.

With Premier League sides not doing enough in Europe this season to clinch a fifth Champions League qualifying berth, missing out to Serie A and the Bundesliga, it is just as well that Klopp’s men have done enough to qualify on their own merits.

But while Liverpool will head into their 2024/25 Champions League campaign not as English champions, barring the most unlikely set of results in the final fortnight of the Premier League season, not as Europa League holders, having suffered a quarter-final exit to Atalanta, and having not competed in the tournament the year before, they will still be top seeds next season.

In the past, the 32 teams competing in the Champions League group-stages have been separated into four pots of eight. The reigning European champions and Europa League holders would fill two spots in pot one along with the domestic champions from the six nations ranked highest in UEFA’s coefficients.

If a side who won the Champions League or Europa League was also a domestic champion, then the champion from the seventh ranked nation would also take up a spot in pot one. The remaining 24 sides would be allocated their pot depending on their own UEFA coefficients based on recent history in European competition.

Liverpool would not be eligible for a place in pot one next season as a result under such rules. But the revamped Champions League changes things, meaning the Reds could actually end up in a pot higher than the potential Premier League champions.

From next season, 36 clubs will take part in the Champions League and they will all compete under the same league table. For the league-stage draw to decide fixtures, sides are still sorted into four pots, with nine sides now filling each one.

But pot one will now be made up of the reigning Champions League winners and the eight sides who rank highest in the UEFA club coefficients. Domestic champions and Europa League holders are no longer guaranteed a place in the top pot as a result.

Consequently, even if Arsenal were to win the Premier League this season, Liverpool would still be in pot one ahead of them courtesy of a superior recent record in Europe.

Man City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, and Inter Milan are already guaranteed places in pot one next season as a result, along with the Reds - who are currently fifth with 114 points in the rankings.

However, being a top seed is no longer the advantage it once was. Previously, it would have ensured an ‘easier’ draw, with sides facing one side from each of pot two, pot three, and pot four, facing all three both at home and away.

But in the revamped model, sides will now play eight group games against eight different sides (with four at home and four away), with two coming from each of the four pots. As a result, clubs will face two sides from the same pot.

While clubs will in most cases avoid sides from their same nation, leagues with four or more clubs could end up playing one match against another team from the same country. As a result, it is plausible that Man City could be one of the two pot one sides Liverpool face next season.

Likewise, the Reds could be drawn against Arsenal (or Aston Villa/Tottenham Hotspur depending on who finishes fourth) in next season's group-stages in what would be a nightmare scenario for the Premier League sides.

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